D3 Men’s Soccer Tournament Analysis

The bracket is out.

If the committee just used my rankings to pick the best 64 teams for the tournament we would have:

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference	Bracket
1	Johns Hopkins	7.274983	CC	C1
2	Mary Washington	6.404937	CAC	A5
3	Christopher Newport	6.325505	CAC	C5
4	Franklin and Marshall	6.058318	CC	B9
5	Washington and Lee	5.861226	ODAC	C13
6	Amherst	5.501767	NESCAC	A1
7	Calvin	5.199598	MIAA	D9
8	Tufts	4.758455	NESCAC	C9
9	Oneonta State	4.453158	SUNYAC	A16
10	Messiah	4.320247	MACC	A13
11	Catholic	4.099097	LAND	C4
12	Chicago	3.762664	UAA	D1
13	Oglethorpe	3.74774	SAA	C16
14	Gustavus Adolphus	3.743559	MIAC	D16
15	Montclair State	3.642345	NJAC	B12
16	Roanoke	3.604485	ODAC	C8
17	Connecticut College	3.470335	NESCAC	C3
18	Centre	3.367097	SAA	B3
19	Covenant	3.305011	USAC
20	Kenyon	3.293775	NCAC	B13
21	RPI	3.273092	LL	A9
22	Middlebury	3.271638	NESCAC	A11
23	Luther	3.254263	ARC	D5
24	Ohio Wesleyan	3.177396	NCAC	D3
25	Gettysburg	3.162307	CC	C15
26	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	3.116905	SCIAC	B5
27	Eastern Connecticut	3.067903	LEC
28	Hobart	3.065598	LL	B11
29	Rowan	3.020557	NJAC	A7
30	Haverford	2.991523	CC
31	North Park	2.965349	CCIW	D13
32	Babson	2.905477	NEWMAC	A15
33	Williams	2.82497	NESCAC
34	Texas-Dallas	2.744419	ASC	B8
35	John Carroll	2.74405	OAC	B1
36	Rutgers-Camden	2.738131	NJAC
37	Loras	2.688357	ARC
38	St. Mary’s (Md.)	2.687594	CAC
39	Swarthmore	2.626722	CC	C7
40	Ramapo	2.61043	NJAC
41	Dickinson	2.58952	CC
42	Stockton	2.577122	NJAC
43	St. Thomas	2.538851	MIAC
44	Buffalo State	2.520615	SUNYAC
45	Ithaca	2.439258	LL	A3
46	Texas Lutheran	2.403701	SCAC	B6
47	Lynchburg	2.39488	ODAC
48	Brandeis	2.392352	UAA
49	WPI	2.319292	NEWMAC	C11
50	Salisbury	2.306771	CAC
51	Lycoming	2.272534	MACC
52	Muhlenberg	2.220837	CC
53	Colorado College	2.193662	SCAC	D15
54	Hope	2.144634	MIAA	D4
55	Wheaton (Ill.)	2.138748	CCIW
56	Trinity (Texas)	2.120328	SCAC	B7
57	Cortland State	2.118712	SUNYAC
58	Clarkson	2.086891	LL
59	York (Pa.)	2.081022	CAC
60	Hardin-Simmons	2.08095	ASC
61	Otterbein	2.022242	OAC
62	North Carolina Wesleyan	2.005021	USAC	C14
63	Pacific Lutheran	1.965622	NWC	D14
64	TCNJ	1.946055	NJAC

However, that is not the field. For each of the teams that isn’t in above there is a team below.

67	Rochester	1.876152	UAA	B15
69	Penn State-Behrend	1.827617	AMCC	B14
71	Central	1.810134	ARC	D7
73	St. Norbert	1.797558	MWC	D12
77	UW-Whitewater	1.746453	WIAC	D10
82	Ohio Northern	1.67124	OAC	D11
84	Dominican	1.639389	NACC	D2
90	Kalamazoo	1.547191	MIAA	B4
100	UW-Superior	1.432918	UMAC	D8
103	Keene State	1.375216	LEC	A4
113	Salve Regina	1.290587	CCC	A8
118	Johnson and Wales	1.24872	GNAC	A12
121	Eastern	1.224273	MACF	C6
125	Hanover	1.16564	HCAC	B16
153	Nazareth	0.993814	E8	C12
177	Penn State-Harrisburg	0.799206	NEAC	B10
182	Eastern Nazarene	0.74991	NECC	A10
183	Keystone	0.746116	CSAC	A6
239	Principia	0.437721	SLIAC	D6
244	Framingham State	0.428668	MASCAC	A14
271	SUNY-Maritime	0.340043	SKY	C10
281	John Jay	0.307107	CUNYAC	C2
290	Washington and Jefferson	0.279083	PrAC	B2
318	Thomas	0.203918	NAC	A2

Note: the number is the position in the bracket, not the seed, because they don’t release them. Top of the bracket is 1, bottom is 16.

Looking at the rankings, the C bracket (upper right-hand quarter) is the quarter of death. Sorry Johns Hopkins.

Using the game network to predict the expected goal differential between the teams and give that as the starting score for the teams that are playing win-by-3 and are evenly matched. (This probably over estimates the chance of winning of an overmatched team.) From that we get a probability of reaching the next round. Mapping all those through the rounds we get the following which is sorted by the probability a team wins the tournament.

Team	Rating	Round2	Round3	Quarters	Semis	Finals	Champs
Mary Washington	6.404937043	0.833333333	0.578703704	0.35097308	0.236857347	0.148597862	0.089605638
Johns Hopkins	7.274983394	0.833333333	0.555555556	0.318930041	0.195248038	0.139431118	0.0832919
Franklin and Marshall	6.058317593	0.833333333	0.555555556	0.394375857	0.263525843	0.14902674	0.082383164
Christopher Newport	6.325504994	0.833333333	0.555555556	0.321502058	0.186495449	0.12346918	0.074119963
Amherst	5.501766596	0.833333333	0.555555556	0.323645405	0.182802802	0.114700892	0.064907047
Tufts	4.758454969	0.833333333	0.601851852	0.312071331	0.146149661	0.090433794	0.05113775
Chicago	3.762664173	0.833333333	0.486111111	0.344328704	0.204282804	0.097604577	0.050371973
Washington and Lee	5.861225707	0.666666667	0.388888889	0.230452675	0.123509712	0.076424754	0.043769631
Calvin	5.199598252	0.666666667	0.444444444	0.275720165	0.158639854	0.070865831	0.035938105
Messiah	4.3202468	0.833333333	0.462962963	0.257201646	0.116428729	0.065806584	0.033052204
Oneonta State	4.453158134	0.666666667	0.37037037	0.205761317	0.093460516	0.052890905	0.025700399
Middlebury	3.271637718	0.666666667	0.37037037	0.189757659	0.089503393	0.046727957	0.022261032
RPI	3.2730924	0.833333333	0.462962963	0.237197074	0.09451753	0.045749821	0.020258296
Gettysburg	3.162306522	0.5	0.277777778	0.162894376	0.07350078	0.040430892	0.019464147
Rowan	3.020556505	0.833333333	0.347222222	0.154320988	0.079303841	0.039139714	0.018024082
Luther	3.254263107	0.833333333	0.486111111	0.208172582	0.10372488	0.040245403	0.017109705
Kenyon	3.293775411	0.666666667	0.37037037	0.157750343	0.088044816	0.038294539	0.016903576
Centre	3.36709744	0.666666667	0.37037037	0.185185185	0.083426476	0.036285821	0.015871781
Gustavus Adolphus	3.743559249	0.5	0.277777778	0.164609053	0.087827835	0.034776048	0.015263726
Ohio Wesleyan	3.177396319	0.5	0.263888889	0.156989455	0.083410742	0.032984108	0.014376609
John Carroll	2.744049848	0.833333333	0.416666667	0.208333333	0.093330857	0.035904215	0.014093885
Connecticut College	3.470335483	0.5	0.208333333	0.086805556	0.044643141	0.025982759	0.013112193
Oglethorpe	3.747740361	0.5	0.222222222	0.130315501	0.051873703	0.028398588	0.01280325
North Park	2.9653487	0.666666667	0.333333333	0.172839506	0.079214402	0.030735302	0.01249017
Rochester	1.876152316	0.666666667	0.37037037	0.154320988	0.077398643	0.029775121	0.011429691
Montclair State	3.642344664	0.5	0.194444444	0.105624143	0.058951746	0.025620252	0.011344802
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	3.116904505	0.5	0.25	0.135030864	0.060831806	0.026458411	0.011142763
Catholic	4.099097002	0.5	0.208333333	0.086805556	0.042499794	0.023266782	0.010943298
Roanoke	3.60448498	0.5	0.194444444	0.081018519	0.042986677	0.023645868	0.010660528
Ithaca	2.439257735	0.666666667	0.277777778	0.115526406	0.055234797	0.025451659	0.010304505
Hobart	3.065597856	0.5	0.194444444	0.105624143	0.05446924	0.023672168	0.010028498
Swarthmore	2.626722443	0.5	0.194444444	0.081018519	0.035452548	0.019408723	0.009128672
Trinity (Texas)	2.120328002	0.5	0.25	0.127314815	0.057035523	0.021187609	0.007982528
Colorado College	2.193662015	0.5	0.25	0.121527778	0.055697627	0.017386217	0.006629934
Texas Lutheran	2.403700682	0.5	0.25	0.127314815	0.051446944	0.018301119	0.006435191
WPI	2.319291933	0.666666667	0.277777778	0.097736626	0.034851771	0.015767465	0.00641303
Texas-Dallas	2.744418786	0.5	0.25	0.127314815	0.051446944	0.018301119	0.006329118
Hope	2.144634205	0.5	0.194444444	0.107124486	0.050623299	0.015802247	0.005954483
Babson	2.905477445	0.333333333	0.12962963	0.068415638	0.027262044	0.012581386	0.005148255
Central	1.810133828	0.5	0.263888889	0.098958333	0.044931699	0.012592252	0.004207682
Kalamazoo	1.547191179	0.333333333	0.185185185	0.084876543	0.032328377	0.011491132	0.003907422
Ohio Northern	1.671239935	0.5	0.194444444	0.077417695	0.032795411	0.009191019	0.003129826
Pacific Lutheran	1.965621718	0.333333333	0.138888889	0.059156379	0.023277229	0.006523518	0.002017794
North Carolina Wesleyan	2.005021354	0.333333333	0.111111111	0.047325103	0.013525226	0.005209376	0.001869722
St. Norbert	1.797557957	0.5	0.194444444	0.069315844	0.026574342	0.006098847	0.00168075
UW-Whitewater	1.746452912	0.333333333	0.166666667	0.05941358	0.022778007	0.005227583	0.001440643
Keene State	1.375215697	0.333333333	0.138888889	0.035472394	0.012169644	0.003589019	0.000976889
Hanover	1.165639568	0.333333333	0.12962963	0.033607682	0.011755773	0.003153934	0.000862252
Penn State-Behrend	1.827616563	0.333333333	0.12962963	0.033607682	0.011254424	0.003019428	0.000817527
UW-Superior	1.43291836	0.5	0.194444444	0.050861626	0.015707844	0.003136322	0.000751403
Eastern	1.224272895	0.166666667	0.055555556	0.019032922	0.004907265	0.001781678	0.000523943
Dominican	1.63938922	0.166666667	0.055555556	0.023791152	0.008675387	0.001901234	0.00049143
Johnson and Wales	1.248719604	0.333333333	0.12037037	0.024891404	0.005091456	0.001497946	0.000318359
Nazareth	0.993814012	0.333333333	0.083333333	0.015432099	0.003090323	0.0008124	0.000186663
Salve Regina	1.290586937	0.166666667	0.037037037	0.010116598	0.002674476	0.000786852	0.000186172
Penn State-Harrisburg	0.799205714	0.166666667	0.055555556	0.015089163	0.004247708	0.000856408	0.000169838
Keystone	0.746115856	0.166666667	0.037037037	0.009259259	0.002080281	0.000614707	0.000121584
Eastern Nazarene	0.749909683	0.166666667	0.046296296	0.009287837	0.001666055	0.000295822	5.35E-05
Principia	0.437720613	0.166666667	0.055555556	0.009773663	0.001838637	0.000249967	4.23E-05
John Jay	0.307107234	0.166666667	0.027777778	0.004886831	0.000833186	0.000142761	2.41E-05
Framingham State	0.428667576	0.166666667	0.037037037	0.007487426	0.000880937	0.000151047	1.91E-05
SUNY-Maritime	0.340042594	0.166666667	0.037037037	0.003772291	0.000432727	7.34E-05	9.07E-06
Washington and Jefferson	0.279083112	0.166666667	0.027777778	0.00462963	0.000504877	6.16E-05	5.93E-06
Thomas	0.203917911	0.166666667	0.027777778	0.000685871	6.62E-05	8.18E-06	5.14E-07

If Hopkins can get to the Final Four, they are the favorite, but they have too many quality opponents in their quarter. Franklin and Marshall have the easiest to the the Final Four.

The network of games that only includes those in the tournament is fairly well-connected. I look forward to how the better national connectedness effects the rankings.

NCAA Football Rankings for October 31, 2019

Happy Halloween!

D1

Ranking	Ranking.diff	Team	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Ohio_St	24.996465	4.8124401
2	0	Alabama	10.706391	1.1208285
3	2	Clemson	6.826014	0.7218823
4	0	LSU	6.649974	-0.7095973
5	1	Wisconsin	5.427782	-0.4418821
6	1	Auburn	5.236187	0.0615328
7	-4	Oklahoma	5.092623	-2.4687915
8	3	Penn_St	5.048368	0.9235627
9	-1	Florida	4.452010	-0.6145708
10	2	Utah	4.343951	0.5936339
11	-1	Oregon	3.740043	-0.5966043
12	-3	Georgia	3.711261	-0.8036258
13	8	UCF	3.505267	0.6963435
14	12	Michigan	3.332768	0.8888188
15	2	Texas_A&M	3.206129	0.2172442
16	0	Baylor	3.170862	0.1624902
17	1	Iowa_St	2.980399	0.0242949
18	7	Iowa	2.954257	0.4271486
19	-6	Texas	2.883718	-0.8484157
20	-6	Washington	2.870187	-0.7334677
21	2	Michigan_St	2.709765	0.1011863
22	-2	USC	2.518222	-0.3823275
23	9	Oklahoma_St	2.506525	0.4839582
24	-5	Memphis	2.437307	-0.4840497
25	27	Kansas_St	2.404594	0.9728291

D3

Ranking	Ranking.diff	Team	Rating	Rating.diff
1	1	Wheaton_IL	16.299170	5.5624994
2	-1	Mt_Union	10.604124	-0.1856312
3	1	N_Central_IL	8.783914	2.7700955
4	1	Ithaca	5.521117	-0.4265465
5	4	M_Hardin-Baylor	5.043196	0.6306420
6	1	Redlands	5.019865	-0.2675677
7	-1	Muhlenberg	4.959888	-0.9401962
8	-5	Bridgewater_VA	4.766297	-1.6670437
9	1	St_John’s_MN	4.688269	0.3687356
10	6	Hardin-Simmons	4.316374	1.3156286
11	0	Linfield	3.768542	-0.0941523
12	1	Chapman	3.484552	-0.1382904
13	-5	Cortland_St	3.318683	-1.2397508
14	-2	Delaware_Val	3.310361	-0.4914800
15	-1	IL_Wesleyan	3.026023	-0.1792090
16	17	Berry	3.023818	0.9128035
17	10	TX_Lutheran	2.988237	0.7582592
18	1	WI_Whitewater	2.981541	0.2314149
19	11	WI_Platteville	2.922449	0.7345688
20	-5	Susquehanna	2.815014	-0.2518482
21	18	Bethel_MN	2.558505	0.5877562
22	-1	Salisbury	2.540266	-0.1003247
23	19	WI_LaCrosse	2.477460	0.5622316
24	-7	Stevenson	2.390712	-0.6076242
25	-5	Johns_Hopkins	2.319513	-0.4159237

D3 Soccer Rankings for October 28

Women

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Messiah	MACC	12.466660	-0.8202080
2	1	MIT	NEWMAC	10.012659	0.4317320
3	1	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	9.712955	0.3331231
4	-2	Arcadia	MACC	9.275653	-1.4087759
5	5	Christopher Newport	CAC	7.568759	0.4736607
6	1	William Smith	LL	7.548923	0.0298512
7	1	Centre	SAA	7.519408	0.0970734
8	7	Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	7.382648	1.4782734
9	-4	Haverford	CC	7.149522	-0.9780999
10	-4	Johns Hopkins	CC	7.075895	-0.9485479
11	1	Dickinson	CC	6.941530	0.3059205
12	-3	TCNJ	NJAC	6.795400	-0.3332268
13	1	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	6.179876	-0.1405969
14	7	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	6.174274	1.1114830
15	5	Gettysburg	CC	5.995080	0.8659884
16	-3	Washington U.	UAA	5.781421	-0.7086374
17	-1	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	5.723534	0.1194980
18	-7	Tufts	NESCAC	5.514718	-1.1644633
19	-2	Salisbury	CAC	5.364476	-0.0263840
20	2	Chapman	SCIAC	5.114643	0.4969369
21	2	McDaniel	CC	5.082714	0.4883227
22	-4	Washington and Lee	ODAC	4.830008	-0.3464497
23	-4	Chicago	UAA	4.744728	-0.3981302
24	1	Stevens	MACF	4.218926	-0.1447775
25	1	Otterbein	OAC	4.174566	0.2226062

Men

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.496576	0.4486094
2	-1	Amherst	NESCAC	6.320776	-0.4243865
3	1	Calvin	MIAA	5.759897	0.0633444
4	-1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.624504	-0.3269175
5	4	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.761083	0.6564037
6	1	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.745029	0.2058018
7	1	Tufts	NESCAC	4.334727	0.0983643
8	2	Messiah	MACC	4.067979	0.0172826
9	8	Connecticut College	NESCAC	4.030470	0.7525813
10	1	Oglethorpe	SAA	4.018336	0.0532439
11	-6	Mary Washington	CAC	3.671812	-1.9465445
12	1	Gettysburg	CC	3.641193	-0.1818688
13	1	RPI	LL	3.629872	-0.1531970
14	6	Catholic	LAND	3.608607	0.4361182
15	-3	Covenant	USAC	3.509402	-0.3776101
16	0	Roanoke	ODAC	3.393277	-0.3082381
17	17	Eastern Connecticut	LEC	3.391522	0.5730640
18	-3	Chicago	UAA	3.366958	-0.3566080
19	3	Montclair State	NJAC	3.347149	0.2120482
20	6	Hobart	LL	3.249763	0.2511389
21	25	St. Mary’s (Md.)	CAC	3.114100	0.6184724
22	11	Swarthmore	CC	3.088375	0.2488068
23	-2	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	3.069907	-0.0928992
24	-6	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.018220	-0.2351859
25	-19	Washington and Lee	ODAC	2.990278	-2.2180885

D3 soccer rankings for October 22

Men

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Amherst	NESCAC	6.745163	-0.6858537
2	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.047967	0.2961397
3	1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.951422	0.3369577
4	-2	Calvin	MIAA	5.696552	-0.1295528
5	2	Mary Washington	CAC	5.618356	0.5423553
6	-1	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.208367	-0.1153465
7	1	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.539227	-0.3383382
8	7	Tufts	NESCAC	4.236362	0.4687100
9	1	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.104679	-0.3611232
10	4	Messiah	MACC	4.050696	0.1770074
11	0	Oglethorpe	SAA	3.965092	-0.1974389
12	1	Covenant	USAC	3.887012	-0.0130860
13	5	Gettysburg	CC	3.823062	0.3272493
14	8	RPI	LL	3.783069	0.4292700
15	-3	Chicago	UAA	3.723566	-0.2259413
16	-10	Roanoke	ODAC	3.701515	-1.5835952
17	-8	Connecticut College	NESCAC	3.277889	-1.3731163
18	1	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.253406	-0.1763766
19	6	Centre	SAA	3.174304	0.0323276
20	-4	Catholic	LAND	3.172489	-0.4601962
21	5	Ohio Wesleyan	NCAC	3.162806	0.0725355
22	12	Montclair State	NJAC	3.135101	0.3245287
23	6	Haverford	CC	3.124062	0.1599537
24	0	Ithaca	LL	3.111308	-0.1181397
25	-4	Middlebury	NESCAC	3.069170	-0.3207733

Women

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	2	Messiah	MACC	13.286868	0.3919912
2	0	Arcadia	MACC	10.684429	-2.2523457
3	1	MIT	NEWMAC	9.580927	-0.8221924
4	-3	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	9.379832	-3.8610905
5	1	Haverford	CC	8.127622	0.1328839
6	3	Johns Hopkins	CC	8.024442	0.5556545
7	-2	William Smith	LL	7.519072	-1.1839667
8	4	Centre	SAA	7.422334	0.5945044
9	2	TCNJ	NJAC	7.128627	-0.1538234
10	4	Christopher Newport	CAC	7.095098	0.7255687
11	-4	Tufts	NESCAC	6.679182	-0.9634650
12	4	Dickinson	CC	6.635610	0.9138316
13	-5	Washington U.	UAA	6.490058	-1.0498904
14	-4	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	6.320473	-1.0999540
15	17	Cal Lutheran	SCIAC	5.904375	2.5296370
16	4	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	5.604036	0.6108420
17	4	Salisbury	CAC	5.390860	0.4041145
18	0	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.176458	-0.2312846
19	-4	Chicago	UAA	5.142858	-0.7863665
20	-7	Gettysburg	CC	5.129092	-1.6272709
21	1	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	5.062791	0.1310491
22	3	Chapman	SCIAC	4.617707	-0.0110264
23	1	McDaniel	CC	4.594391	-0.2077055
24	-7	Geneseo State	SUNYAC	4.581179	-1.0747660
25	-2	Stevens	MACF	4.363703	-0.4549804

Football Rankings for October 22

D3

Ranking	Ranking.diff	Team	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Mt_Union	10.789755	-0.9586595
2	0	Wheaton_IL	10.736670	0.5272684
3	3	Bridgewater_VA	6.433340	1.4034896
4	-1	N_Central_IL	6.013819	-0.0472771
5	7	Ithaca	5.947663	2.6007566
6	-2	Muhlenberg	5.900085	0.6047388
7	0	Redlands	5.287433	0.3338922
8	0	Cortland_St	4.558434	0.3352623
9	-4	M_Hardin-Baylor	4.412553	-0.8529063
10	8	St_John’s_MN	4.319533	1.3202320
11	-1	Linfield	3.862694	0.2964542
12	5	Delaware_Val	3.801841	0.7355278
13	-4	Chapman	3.622842	-0.0647747
14	2	IL_Wesleyan	3.205232	0.0861825
15	5	Susquehanna	3.066862	0.1521402
16	12	Hardin-Simmons	3.000745	0.4085483
17	12	Stevenson	2.998336	0.4933227
18	NA	Randolph-Macon	2.910007	NA
19	5	WI_Whitewater	2.750126	0.0449216
20	-6	Johns_Hopkins	2.735437	-0.4582172
21	27	Salisbury	2.640591	1.0186167
22	5	Averett	2.616430	0.0175963
23	14	Alfred	2.490549	0.6793603
24	2	Whitworth	2.353887	-0.2554636
25	18	WI_Oshkosh	2.321242	0.6656980

D1-FBS

Ranking	Ranking.diff	Team	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Ohio_St	20.184025	2.7912494
2	0	Alabama	9.585563	-2.9981747
3	2	Oklahoma	7.561414	1.0121182
4	0	LSU	7.359572	-0.1686155
5	1	Clemson	6.104132	0.5667425
6	-3	Wisconsin	5.869664	-4.3340795
7	1	Auburn	5.174654	0.0713636
8	1	Florida	5.066581	0.1816080
9	4	Georgia	4.514886	0.6478624
10	-3	Oregon	4.336647	-0.9511761
11	-1	Penn_St	4.124806	-0.1313407
12	7	Utah	3.750317	0.5761698
13	-2	Texas	3.732134	-0.4630931
14	0	Washington	3.603655	-0.0206146
15	0	Notre_Dame	3.232957	-0.1950796
16	10	Baylor	3.008372	0.6062362
17	-1	Texas_A&M	2.988885	-0.3946509
18	2	Iowa_St	2.956104	-0.1241968
19	13	Memphis	2.921356	0.7343472
20	3	USC	2.900549	0.2658929
21	-4	UCF	2.808924	-0.5583345
22	-10	Missouri	2.748234	-1.2250249
23	-5	Michigan_St	2.608578	-0.6005394
24	-3	South_Carolina	2.604848	-0.2374353
25	-3	Iowa	2.527108	-0.2632988

NCAA Football Rankings for October 14

D1

Ranking	Ranking.diff	Team	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Ohio_St	17.392775	-6.6822281
2	0	Alabama	12.583738	-1.0189426
3	2	Wisconsin	10.203744	4.9788805
4	0	LSU	7.528187	0.8924299
5	-2	Oklahoma	6.549296	-0.5169415
6	6	Clemson	5.537389	1.4311005
7	8	Oregon	5.287824	1.2878375
8	-1	Auburn	5.103291	0.0696870
9	1	Florida	4.884973	0.4067857
10	-2	Penn_St	4.256146	-0.4967548
11	5	Texas	4.195227	0.3963173
12	2	Missouri	3.973259	-0.0460766
13	-7	Georgia	3.867024	-1.3126142
14	3	Washington	3.624270	0.1302010
15	-2	Notre_Dame	3.428037	-0.6161870
16	11	Texas_A&M	3.383536	1.0240818
17	-6	UCF	3.367258	-0.7947038
18	-9	Michigan_St	3.209118	-1.4634208
19	10	Utah	3.174147	0.9295971
20	-1	Iowa_St	3.080301	0.2755556
21	2	South_Carolina	2.842283	0.3331825
22	12	Iowa	2.790407	0.6881156
23	7	USC	2.634657	0.4101484
24	14	Michigan	2.627121	0.7716588
25	-3	North_Carolina	2.565403	0.0069812

D3

Ranking	Ranking.diff	Team	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Mt_Union	11.748415	-3.3396437
2	0	Wheaton_IL	10.209402	3.3426496
3	7	N_Central_IL	6.061096	2.4248423
4	2	Muhlenberg	5.295346	-0.1408688
5	32	M_Hardin-Baylor	5.265460	3.2732155
6	-1	Bridgewater_VA	5.029851	-0.6228140
7	-3	Redlands	4.953541	-1.2462051
8	-5	Cortland_St	4.223172	-2.1920546
9	32	Chapman	3.687617	1.8344164
10	2	Linfield	3.566240	0.2183084
11	39	Randolph_Macon	3.368300	1.7277327
12	-3	Ithaca	3.346907	-0.2962887
13	20	St_Thomas_MN	3.272302	1.1743861
14	5	Johns_Hopkins	3.193654	0.5396942
15	3	Berry	3.161211	0.4665789
16	5	IL_Wesleyan	3.119050	0.6827638
17	-10	Delaware_Val	3.066313	-1.3366326
18	2	St_John’s_MN	2.999301	0.4576088
19	17	Wartburg	2.997114	0.9960906
20	-3	Susquehanna	2.914722	0.0873753
21	-5	TX_Lutheran	2.804467	-0.0402799
22	-8	Hobart_&_Smith	2.760385	-0.2436119
23	-12	Union_NY	2.720809	-0.7535273
24	27	WI_Whitewater	2.705204	1.1247161
25	9	Case_Western	2.611259	0.5413322

Looking at the change since last week, we can see that some teams are distinguishing themselves with conference blowout wins.

D3 soccer rankings for October 14

Men

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	0	Amherst	NESCAC	7.431017	0.1841357
2	0	Calvin	MIAA	5.826105	-1.1429049
3	1	Christopher Newport	CAC	5.751827	-0.9576860
4	-1	Johns Hopkins	CC	5.614464	-1.2412666
5	0	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.323713	-1.1627578
6	1	Roanoke	ODAC	5.285110	0.2666704
7	-1	Mary Washington	CAC	5.076001	-0.6142356
8	0	Franklin and Marshall	CC	4.877566	0.3854936
9	0	Connecticut College	NESCAC	4.651006	0.2162177
10	18	Oneonta State	SUNYAC	4.465802	1.2456377
11	6	Oglethorpe	SAA	4.162531	0.3016660
12	-1	Chicago	UAA	3.949507	-0.2317301
13	1	Covenant	USAC	3.900098	-0.2061264
14	1	Messiah	MACC	3.873689	-0.1011965
15	8	Tufts	NESCAC	3.767652	0.2003724
16	-3	Catholic	LAND	3.632685	-0.4902975
17	1	Rowan	NJAC	3.531120	-0.2944938
18	-6	Gettysburg	CC	3.495813	-0.6596619
19	21	Buffalo State	SUNYAC	3.429783	0.8102308
20	1	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	3.394567	-0.2796730
21	-11	Middlebury	NESCAC	3.389944	-0.8662083
22	8	RPI	LL	3.353799	0.2294270
23	-3	Gustavus Adolphus	MIAC	3.239926	-0.5597863
24	-8	Ithaca	LL	3.229448	-0.7324246
25	2	Centre	SAA	3.141976	-0.2712618

Women

Rank	Rank.diff	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating.diff
1	1	Pomona-Pitzer	SCIAC	13.240923	1.8543260
2	-1	Arcadia	MACC	12.936774	-0.6249344
3	1	Messiah	MACC	12.894877	2.4574961
4	5	MIT	NEWMAC	10.403120	2.5279348
5	2	William Smith	LL	8.703038	0.7689627
6	10	Haverford	CC	7.994738	2.5675828
7	8	Tufts	NESCAC	7.642647	1.7588821
8	-3	Washington U.	UAA	7.539948	-1.6438874
9	3	Johns Hopkins	CC	7.468788	0.4050967
10	-2	Wheaton (Ill.)	CCIW	7.420427	-0.4583739
11	-5	TCNJ	NJAC	7.282450	-1.6477431
12	5	Centre	SAA	6.827830	1.6243596
13	-2	Gettysburg	CC	6.756363	-0.3247103
14	-11	Christopher Newport	CAC	6.369530	-4.3384925
15	-1	Chicago	UAA	5.929225	-0.3652646
16	-6	Dickinson	CC	5.721778	-1.4902954
17	1	Geneseo State	SUNYAC	5.655945	0.5095282
18	12	Washington and Lee	ODAC	5.407743	2.0385386
19	15	Middlebury	NESCAC	5.286835	2.0112412
20	-7	Randolph-Macon	ODAC	4.993194	-1.4717525
21	16	Salisbury	CAC	4.986745	2.0287685
22	-2	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	SCIAC	4.931742	0.1642784
23	10	Stevens	MACF	4.818684	1.5027793
24	-1	McDaniel	CC	4.802097	0.5012183
25	-6	Chapman	SCIAC	4.628733	-0.4469145

College football rankings for October 7 2019

D1 Top 25

Ranking	Rating	Team
1	24.141256	Ohio_St
2	13.635379	Alabama
3	7.080649	Oklahoma
4	6.632247	LSU
5	5.241785	Wisconsin
6	5.187188	Georgia
7	5.030091	Auburn
8	4.758245	Penn_St
9	4.684774	Michigan_St
10	4.482197	Florida
11	4.173261	UCF
12	4.143951	Clemson
13	4.049841	Notre_Dame
14	4.031868	Missouri
15	4.003343	Oregon
16	3.800367	Texas
17	3.499540	Washington
18	2.887472	Oklahoma_St
19	2.808919	Iowa_St
20	2.681486	Baylor
21	2.592911	California
22	2.592758	North_Carolina
23	2.519399	South_Carolina
24	2.462527	Mississippi
25	2.453368	Memphis

While FBS is connected, the top 25 is not, but assuming everyone stays in (bad assumption) you can see a bunch of connections from conference opponents.

D3 Top 25

Ranking	Rating	Team
1	15.088058	Mt_Union
2	6.866752	Wheaton_IL
3	6.415227	Cortland_St
4	6.199746	Redlands
5	5.652665	Bridgewater_VA
6	5.436215	Muhlenberg
7	4.402946	Delaware_Val
8	3.726166	Stevenson
9	3.643196	Ithaca
10	3.636253	N_Central_IL
11	3.474337	Union_NY
12	3.347932	Linfield
13	3.080867	John_Carroll
14	3.003997	Hobart_&_Smith
15	2.855547	Hardin-Simmons
16	2.844747	TX_Lutheran
17	2.827346	Susquehanna
18	2.694632	Berry
19	2.653960	Johns_Hopkins
20	2.541692	St_John’s_MN
21	2.436286	IL_Wesleyan
22	2.434465	Endicott
23	2.418873	Shenandoah
24	2.363668	Alfred
25	2.323211	Worcester_Tech

D3 Soccer Rankings for October 7

Men’s Top 25

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Amherst	8.363722	NESCAC
2	Johns Hopkins	6.435379	CC
3	Tufts	5.772514	NESCAC
4	Mary Washington	5.700787	CAC
5	Calvin	5.567140	MIAA
6	Christopher Newport	5.543309	CAC
7	Washington and Lee	5.418442	ODAC
8	Covenant	5.215679	USAC
9	Roanoke	5.193439	ODAC
10	Franklin and Marshall	4.378234	CC
11	Connecticut College	4.261961	NESCAC
12	Middlebury	4.208395	NESCAC
13	Oneonta State	3.983242	SUNYAC
14	Catholic	3.883375	LAND
15	Gettysburg	3.874163	CC
16	Chicago	3.671766	UAA
17	Ithaca	3.641007	LL
18	Hardin-Simmons	3.580379	ASC
19	Rowan	3.535411	NJAC
20	Oglethorpe	3.503903	SAA
21	Bates	3.469974	NESCAC
22	RPI	3.463533	LL
23	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	3.314924	SCIAC
24	Messiah	3.301238	MACC
25	Ohio Wesleyan	3.186408	NCAC

I think slightly more connected than last week as conference play kicks in. Of personal pain, Loras drops out of the top 25 with a loss to Central. Hopefully they both beat up on the rest of the ARC to raise both teams in the rankings.

Women’s Top 25

Ranking	Team	Rating	Conference
1	Pomona-Pitzer	13.677916	SCIAC
2	Messiah	12.195209	MACC
3	Christopher Newport	10.482813	CAC
4	Arcadia	10.162750	MACC
5	Gettysburg	9.509140	CC
6	MIT	9.363117	NEWMAC
7	William Smith	8.750692	LL
8	Washington U.	8.738304	UAA
9	Wheaton (Ill.)	8.159610	CCIW
10	TCNJ	7.917645	NJAC
11	Johns Hopkins	7.541190	CC
12	Chicago	6.802198	UAA
13	Tufts	6.302403	NESCAC
14	Centre	6.275105	SAA
15	Dickinson	5.770909	CC
16	Geneseo State	5.762074	SUNYAC
17	Washington and Lee	5.579075	ODAC
18	Haverford	5.405032	CC
19	McDaniel	4.914681	CC
20	Middlebury	4.750553	NESCAC
21	Chapman	4.744196	SCIAC
22	Stevens	4.704247	MACF
23	St. Thomas	4.369327	MIAC
24	Swarthmore	4.150574	CC
25	Randolph-Macon	4.036175	ODAC

About same connectivity as last week. Anyone know if the bottom connected teams play the top connected teams before the tournament?

Football Rankings for October 1, 2019

D1

Ranking	Rating	Team
1	25.186688	Ohio_St
2	11.951739	Alabama
3	7.685262	Auburn
4	7.592467	LSU
5	6.402720	Georgia
6	6.132880	UCF
7	5.950391	Oklahoma
8	5.201108	Texas
9	5.106892	Clemson
10	4.807542	Penn_St
11	4.737876	Notre_Dame
12	4.672361	Oregon
13	4.671974	Washington
14	4.658071	Oklahoma_St
15	3.419683	Texas_A&M
16	3.081418	Michigan_St
17	3.065890	Virginia
18	2.956802	Pittsburgh
19	2.933801	FL_Atlantic
20	2.931056	Wisconsin
21	2.920376	Utah
22	2.879232	Missouri
23	2.838990	USC
24	2.616456	North_Carolina
25	2.592504	California

D3

Ranking	Rating	Team
1	8.640435	Mt_Union
2	8.146347	Wheaton_IL
3	7.319153	Cortland_St
4	7.253049	Muhlenberg
5	6.823364	Bridgewater_VA
6	6.660260	Redlands
7	5.810770	N_Central_IL
8	5.390489	Susquehanna
9	5.265777	Johns_Hopkins
10	5.151351	Concordia_Mhd
11	4.193639	Ithaca
12	4.192964	Delaware_Val
13	4.141777	WI_Whitewater
14	4.092612	IL_Wesleyan
15	3.906393	Hobart_&_Smith
16	3.871771	Endicott
17	3.812864	St_John_Fisher
18	3.634583	WI_LaCrosse
19	3.446200	Augustana_IL
20	3.317648	Rensselaer
21	3.200134	Stevenson
22	3.145403	Linfield
23	3.130765	Worcester_Tech
24	3.121401	Alfred
25	3.058946	Randolph_Macon