Football Predictions

American Football

D3

Same process as last time.  Mount Union is still the favorite to win, but as some of worse possible opponents, and some of the better (Springfield) have been eliminated, the field against is better so, their chances have gone down.

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Football Predictions

D3 with feet most of the time

Like last time I’m predicting from the network of games what the outcome that disturbs the ratings the least is and using that to assign the chance a team wins the game.

Women

Chicago is still the favorite to win.

Team Rating Quarters Semis Finals Champs
Chicago 12.586825 0.750 0.4453125 0.2835388 0.1828015
William Smith 8.182171 0.750 0.4687500 0.2920532 0.1371083
TCNJ 7.581872 0.750 0.4687500 0.2213287 0.1328003
Williams 6.332224 0.625 0.3906250 0.1998901 0.1007598
Washington U. 6.956137 0.625 0.3320313 0.1789856 0.0972532
Carnegie Mellon 5.175204 0.500 0.2187500 0.1132202 0.0493080
Messiah 6.835952 0.500 0.2187500 0.1032867 0.0464535
Johns Hopkins 5.098748 0.500 0.2343750 0.1062012 0.0458255
MIT 5.329399 0.500 0.2187500 0.0881195 0.0437902
Hardin-Simmons 6.746969 0.500 0.2187500 0.1132202 0.0433797
Geneseo State 5.160477 0.500 0.2343750 0.0924683 0.0397563
Wheaton (Ill.) 4.425829 0.250 0.1171875 0.0485229 0.0205909
UW-La Crosse 4.831584 0.375 0.1054688 0.0436707 0.0185318
Ohio Northern 4.248725 0.250 0.0937500 0.0384521 0.0150191
Cal Lutheran 3.234608 0.375 0.1406250 0.0444946 0.0148068
Lynchburg 4.092133 0.250 0.0937500 0.0325470 0.0118150

Men

North Park is the favorite overall due to their odds of making the Final Four, but the winner of Calvin, Chicago, and Emory will have a lot to say about that since they make up the next 3 spots even they are all in the same quarter of the bracket.

Team Rating Quarters Semis Finals Champs
North Park 5.247183 0.625 0.3906250 0.2021790 0.1117852
Calvin 8.048020 0.500 0.2734375 0.1623535 0.1026080
Chicago 5.456391 0.500 0.2734375 0.1623535 0.0923916
Emory 4.115563 0.625 0.3125000 0.1617432 0.0847686
Tufts 4.358629 0.625 0.3125000 0.1617432 0.0838844
Messiah 4.757068 0.625 0.3125000 0.1562500 0.0770837
Brandeis 3.798861 0.500 0.2500000 0.1293945 0.0638349
Drew 4.924219 0.500 0.2500000 0.1293945 0.0612090
Rochester 3.137073 0.500 0.2734375 0.1367188 0.0600919
Amherst 2.633887 0.500 0.2734375 0.1367188 0.0573277
Otterbein 3.756500 0.625 0.2636719 0.1138115 0.0554018
Washington and Lee 3.338904 0.375 0.2050781 0.0885201 0.0430903
Johns Hopkins 3.446674 0.375 0.1875000 0.0937500 0.0412059
Mary Hardin-Baylor 2.818428 0.375 0.1406250 0.0659180 0.0282064
Stevens 1.964927 0.375 0.1406250 0.0560303 0.0206380
St. Thomas 2.372108 0.375 0.1406250 0.0431213 0.0164725

With feet rarely

D3

In a surprise to no one, Mt. Union is favored to win it all. Go to d3challenge.com to fill out a bracket.

Team Ranking Rating Round 2 Quarters Semis Finals Champs
Mt_Union 1 13.5130843 0.8354928 0.6641212 0.5351604 0.4076534 0.2963540
M_Hardin-Baylor 2 6.1297200 0.7748038 0.4605067 0.3208424 0.1856414 0.0940029
Springfield 3 5.9907847 0.6805131 0.4074698 0.2406566 0.1468162 0.0747833
Brockport_St 4 5.4261163 0.7307920 0.4424989 0.2459028 0.1445024 0.0703870
WI_Oshkosh 9 3.5724881 0.8050051 0.4507216 0.2935836 0.1285454 0.0668791
N_Central_IL 7 4.1515714 0.6681731 0.3754448 0.2425280 0.1051158 0.0547256
St_Thomas_MN 12 3.1977341 0.8963444 0.6431044 0.2817652 0.1231592 0.0466874
Delaware_Val 6 4.6059767 0.6454062 0.3260535 0.1731937 0.0954157 0.0431167
Hardin-Simmons 10 3.5687867 0.5358211 0.2642166 0.1643700 0.0797214 0.0339305
Wesley_DE 8 3.5841465 0.6080030 0.2907640 0.1386972 0.0686914 0.0276240
Trine 14 2.9970096 0.6805131 0.3806161 0.1637233 0.0590012 0.0249836
Johns_Hopkins 13 3.1621718 0.6080030 0.3327844 0.1062208 0.0517562 0.0225802
Wartburg 20 2.6817875 0.6454062 0.3546525 0.1501276 0.0503705 0.0202264
Linfield 19 2.7937768 0.4641789 0.2078726 0.1202473 0.0519292 0.0196588
IL_Wesleyan 15 2.9946550 0.5238080 0.1441263 0.0761621 0.0374469 0.0159284
Frostburg_St 17 2.8244724 0.5358211 0.2739108 0.0821808 0.0378808 0.0155545
Case_Western 18 2.7960117 0.4761920 0.1205421 0.0621000 0.0288235 0.0118426
Wittenberg 22 2.4647663 0.4641789 0.2237886 0.0640745 0.0275796 0.0105076
Rensselaer 28 2.2164208 0.3919970 0.1718407 0.0661921 0.0258409 0.0080013
W_New_England 27 2.2203320 0.3545938 0.1422023 0.0570594 0.0222755 0.0068974
St_John’s_MN 37 1.8910780 0.3318269 0.1308485 0.0624697 0.0184574 0.0063681
Husson 25 2.2219310 0.3194869 0.1242743 0.0489366 0.0190677 0.0058974
Wash_&_Jeff 36 1.9206581 0.3919970 0.1695162 0.0410630 0.0156215 0.0051921
Wash_&_Lee 31 2.1282871 0.1645072 0.0712104 0.0330385 0.0133538 0.0047365
Berry 56 1.3696530 0.6080030 0.2332534 0.0637420 0.0166581 0.0040091
Franklin_IN 63 1.2386430 0.3545938 0.1476961 0.0435659 0.0102673 0.0027674
Plymouth_St 44 1.5678174 0.2692080 0.0948964 0.0293615 0.0093666 0.0023585
Chapman 77 1.0666823 0.2251962 0.0674041 0.0270216 0.0069877 0.0015695
Monmouth_IL 71 1.1131799 0.3194869 0.1170353 0.0308693 0.0061307 0.0014310
Huntingdon 102 0.7875709 0.3919970 0.1168434 0.0215926 0.0039257 0.0006481
Lakeland 113 0.7281638 0.1949949 0.0429851 0.0131326 0.0019961 0.0003509
Eureka 230 0.0508224 0.1036556 0.0067988 0.0004190 0.0000008 0.0000000

D1

It was a wild ride this weekend, with Notre Dame again displaying that playing in the warmth may not be the best thing.  (I think Soldier Field should be in the rotation for National Championship Games, just for the Midwest teams to have some home-field advantage.)

Ranking Rating Team
1 6.200294 Clemson
2 5.943754 Oklahoma
3 5.805010 Auburn
4 5.687252 Penn_St
5 5.563977 Ohio_St
6 5.372236 Alabama
7 5.221914 Notre_Dame
8 5.053769 Miami_FL
9 4.817817 Wisconsin
10 4.736633 Georgia
11 4.730717 Oklahoma_St
12 4.647696 TCU
13 4.091436 Iowa_St
14 3.847587 UCF
15 3.789681 Virginia_Tech
16 3.744390 Iowa
17 3.633707 Washington
18 3.143615 Georgia_Tech
19 3.121306 Texas
20 3.058587 Wake_Forest
21 2.993038 West_Virginia
22 2.966668 NC_State
23 2.801138 USC
24 2.594257 Mississippi_St
25 2.529745 Michigan

plottop25-1.png

The top 25 are fairly well connected with UCF and Washington being the only teams to not play someone else in the top 25.  I also like the way you can see the conferences appearing in the cliques in the graph.

Predictions for Natties

Men

It looks to be a Revolver v. Truck Stop final.

team S F C
Revolver 1 0.644 0.436
Ring of Fire 1 0.356 0.183
Truck Stop 1 0.567 0.229
Doublewide 1 0.433 0.152

displayBracket-1.png

Women

Molly Brown is the favorite to win, but with a toss-up vs. Brute Squad in the semis.

team S F C
Brute Squad 1 0.488 0.301
Molly Brown 1 0.512 0.324
Fury 1 0.621 0.267
Ozone 1 0.379 0.108

displayBracket-1.png

Mixed

team S F C
Seattle Mixtape 1 0.579 0.305
AMP 1 0.563 0.285
Slow White 1 0.421 0.199
BFG 1 0.437 0.211

displayBracket-1.png

 

Bracket Predictions

Mixed

I mostly got this division correct.  Pool C was off, in that Wild Card underperformed.

team Q S F C
Seattle Mixtape 1.000 0.652 0.384 0.211
AMP 1.000 0.623 0.415 0.254
Drag’n Thrust 0.576 0.293 0.118 0.057
Slow White 1.000 0.565 0.263 0.123
BFG 0.563 0.308 0.140 0.075
Wild Card 0.570 0.192 0.101 0.045
Blackbird 0.430 0.156 0.078 0.031
Mischief 0.437 0.178 0.074 0.024
Steamboat 0.512 0.181 0.086 0.040
shame. 1.000 0.514 0.190 0.075
Toro 0.424 0.142 0.056 0.024
Public Enemy 0.488 0.196 0.095 0.041

Rplot.png

AMP is the new favorite, followed by Mixtape.

Men

Hello Florida United, good-bye Sockeye.  Did not see that one coming.  Of course they did slow play the USAU ranking and that effected mine too.

team Q S F C
Revolver 1.000 0.683 0.434 0.262
Ring of Fire 0.583 0.320 0.150 0.071
Truck Stop 0.517 0.241 0.110 0.063
Johnny Bravo 0.592 0.223 0.108 0.052
Ironside 1.000 0.508 0.248 0.128
Chicago Machine 0.417 0.197 0.073 0.027
HIGH FIVE 0.483 0.251 0.099 0.051
Dig 1.000 0.483 0.193 0.077
GOAT 0.445 0.116 0.046 0.016
Florida United 1.000 0.661 0.381 0.191
Doublewide 0.408 0.116 0.054 0.021
PoNY 0.555 0.201 0.104 0.041

Rplot01.png

Women

Due to the bracket, Molly Brown is favored to win the championship because Riot and Brute Squad are slated to meet in the semis.

team Q S F C
Seattle Riot 1.000 0.681 0.390 0.198
Brute Squad 1.000 0.744 0.395 0.235
Molly Brown 1.000 0.718 0.423 0.253
Fury 1.000 0.678 0.360 0.168
Scandal 0.575 0.200 0.078 0.029
Traffic 0.408 0.169 0.060 0.024
Ozone 0.274 0.074 0.025 0.004
6ixers 0.425 0.082 0.021 0.005
Nightlock 0.415 0.108 0.034 0.017
Pop 0.592 0.153 0.061 0.012
Underground 0.585 0.148 0.049 0.016
Schwa 0.726 0.245 0.104 0.039

Rplot02.png

Football for October 13, 2017

Football US Men are not good enough to qualify for the World Cup in, but our women win most of the time

Women

ranking Team Rating Conference
1 Chicago 23.026422 UAA
2 TCNJ 11.380918 NJAC
3 Christopher Newport 8.439806 CAC
4 Washington U. 7.550164 UAA
5 Williams 6.407291 NESCAC
6 William Smith 6.373152 LL
7 MIT 6.352211 NEWMAC
8 Hardin-Simmons 6.104582 ASC
9 Geneseo State 5.819582 SUNYAC
10 UW-La Crosse 5.801070 WIAC
11 Messiah 5.686621 MACC
12 Trinity (Texas) 5.371953 SCAC
13 Hope 5.203240 MIAA
14 Loras 5.067532 IIAC
15 Wheaton (Ill.) 5.057429 CCIW
16 Johns Hopkins 4.848980 CC
17 Illinois Wesleyan 4.611852 CCIW
18 Connecticut College 4.545188 NESCAC
19 Carnegie Mellon 3.970259 UAA
20 St. Thomas 3.957437 MIAC
21 Brandeis 3.495653 UAA
22 Western Connecticut 3.455829 LEC
23 Swarthmore 3.407231 CC
24 Misericordia 3.345300 MACF
25 Lynchburg 3.336250 ODAC

plottop25Women-1.png

Men

ranking Team Rating Conference
1 Messiah 5.731043 MACC
2 Rowan 4.793266 NJAC
3 Lycoming 4.783010 MACC
4 Drew 4.637748 LAND
5 Calvin 4.528590 MIAA
6 Tufts 4.408126 NESCAC
7 Trinity (Texas) 4.085389 SCAC
8 Johns Hopkins 3.945631 CC
9 Lynchburg 3.891884 ODAC
10 Springfield 3.872557 NEWMAC
11 Chicago 3.804972 UAA
12 Connecticut College 3.635246 NESCAC
13 Cortland State 3.623793 SUNYAC
14 Rutgers-Newark 3.603253 NJAC
15 John Carroll 3.587357 OAC
16 Emory 3.466131 UAA
17 Brandeis 3.443969 UAA
18 North Park 3.177998 CCIW
19 Kenyon 3.076622 NCAC
20 Carnegie Mellon 3.002427 UAA
21 Oglethorpe 2.999867 SAA
22 Oneonta State 2.920086 SUNYAC
23 St. Joseph’s (Maine) 2.899818 GNAC
24 Gettysburg 2.827562 CC
25 Mary Washington 2.742843 CAC

plottop25Men-1.png

Football that only the US plays

D3

Ranking Rating Team
1 37.286483 Mt_Union
2 9.627719 M_Hardin-Baylor
3 6.054454 Hardin-Simmons
4 4.982219 Brockport_St
5 4.308728 Springfield
6 4.035172 Delaware_Val
7 3.456132 Hobart_&_Smith
8 3.341611 Trine
9 3.287098 Ohio_Northern
10 3.169714 N_Central_IL
11 2.998760 Wesley_DE
12 2.801241 Linfield
13 2.616020 Framingham_St
14 2.614519 George_Fox
15 2.553386 Wheaton_IL
16 2.422092 Wittenberg
17 2.415941 Frostburg_St
18 2.411277 St_Thomas_MN
19 2.370034 WI_Platteville
20 2.301882 IL_Wesleyan
21 2.244943 Trinity_CT
22 2.083732 Johns_Hopkins
23 2.004263 Wash_&_Jeff
24 2.003549 Heidelberg
25 1.965188 Chris_Newport

plottop25D3-1.png

D1

Ranking Rating Team
1 7.787725 Clemson
2 7.721841 Georgia
3 7.388705 Notre_Dame
4 6.845145 Alabama
5 6.732860 Ohio_St
6 5.816741 Washington
7 5.382264 Penn_St
8 5.234400 TCU
9 5.228801 Oklahoma
10 5.089111 Auburn
11 4.670114 UCF
12 4.142190 Oklahoma_St
13 4.028163 Washington_St
14 4.008050 Virginia_Tech
15 3.541847 USC
16 3.385663 Iowa
17 3.382719 Wake_Forest
18 3.078747 Wisconsin
19 3.040563 Iowa_St
20 2.978466 Texas_Tech
21 2.970307 Miami_FL
22 2.794285 NC_State
23 2.764864 West_Virginia
24 2.745034 Michigan_St
25 2.699893 Michigan

 

plottop25-1.png

 

 

Simulation of USAU Nationals

As I stated in Predictions for USAU Nationals Pools, I might get to simulating the tournament.  This took way more time than I had to devote to it, but I did it.  I’m using a big for loop in R for the bracket.  (A big no-no in R, but I haven’t come up with a better solution.)  Each tournament was simulated 10,000 times.

I simulated each game as hard to 15, with the MOV predictions from the network as the starting lead for the favored team.  Otherwise, the teams were equally likely to score.  This probably has more variability than what the predicted MOV means, but it made the most sense to do quickly.  The other option was to find p that was the maximum likelihood estimate for the MOV.  (Now that I write that down, it’s not that bad. Sigh!)

Mixed

Pool Results

team pool_name 1 2 3 4
Seattle Mixtape A 0.4489 0.2665 0.1760 0.1086
Mischief A 0.1979 0.2425 0.2773 0.2823
NOISE A 0.1753 0.2479 0.2821 0.2947
Public Enemy A 0.1779 0.2431 0.2646 0.3144
AMP B 0.4696 0.2523 0.1848 0.0933
Blackbird B 0.2591 0.2972 0.2492 0.1945
Toro B 0.1225 0.2173 0.2757 0.3845
Metro North B 0.1488 0.2332 0.2903 0.3277
Drag’n Thrust C 0.3204 0.2699 0.2352 0.1745
Wild Card C 0.3280 0.2799 0.2261 0.1660
shame. C 0.2076 0.2467 0.2650 0.2807
Love Tractor C 0.1440 0.2035 0.2737 0.3788
Slow White D 0.3272 0.2802 0.2256 0.1670
BFG D 0.3205 0.2636 0.2317 0.1842
Steamboat D 0.1653 0.2229 0.2577 0.3541
No Touching! D 0.1870 0.2333 0.2850 0.2947

or for the graphically minded:

displayPoolsMixed-1.png

Bracket

team PQ Q S F C
Seattle Mixtape 0.4425 0.7211 0.4655 0.2846 0.1799
AMP 0.4371 0.7445 0.4385 0.2640 0.1518
Drag’n Thrust 0.5051 0.5988 0.3126 0.1560 0.0784
Slow White 0.5058 0.5990 0.3185 0.1677 0.0864
BFG 0.4953 0.5881 0.3026 0.1598 0.0823
Wild Card 0.5060 0.6145 0.3265 0.1656 0.0815
Blackbird 0.5464 0.5252 0.2590 0.1259 0.0584
Mischief 0.5198 0.4368 0.1930 0.0833 0.0367
Steamboat 0.4806 0.3841 0.1692 0.0745 0.0338
shame. 0.5117 0.4637 0.2072 0.0894 0.0394
Toro 0.4930 0.3357 0.1467 0.0622 0.0248
NOISE 0.5300 0.4219 0.1913 0.0848 0.0351
Public Enemy 0.5077 0.4183 0.1740 0.0746 0.0332
Metro North 0.5235 0.3755 0.1696 0.0725 0.0284
Love Tractor 0.4772 0.3421 0.1502 0.0609 0.0220
No Touching! 0.5183 0.4307 0.1756 0.0742 0.0279

(Sorry about the color-scale.  Any help on picking a discrete color scheme in ggplot2 for 16 levels would be appreciated.):

displayBracketMixed-1.png

Women

Pool

team pool_name 1 2 3 4
Seattle Riot A 0.5444 0.2458 0.1453 0.0645
6ixers A 0.1662 0.2781 0.2952 0.2605
Showdown A 0.0861 0.1880 0.2727 0.4532
Underground A 0.2033 0.2881 0.2868 0.2218
Brute Squad B 0.6643 0.2115 0.0967 0.0275
Ozone B 0.0360 0.1226 0.2466 0.5948
Pop B 0.1291 0.2859 0.3511 0.2339
Rival B 0.1706 0.3800 0.3056 0.1438
Molly Brown C 0.5063 0.2496 0.1674 0.0767
Traffic C 0.1022 0.1994 0.2777 0.4207
Heist C 0.1138 0.2004 0.3178 0.3680
Schwa C 0.2777 0.3506 0.2371 0.1346
Fury D 0.5187 0.2409 0.1652 0.0752
Scandal D 0.1891 0.2628 0.2635 0.2846
Nightlock D 0.0755 0.1794 0.2719 0.4732
Nemesis D 0.2167 0.3169 0.2994 0.1670

Again, I don’t get the rankings. None of the 4 seeds in a pool are the most likely to miss the championship bracket in their pool. Ozone only has a 40% chance of not being eliminated in pool play.

displayPoolsWomen-1.png

Bracket

team PQ Q S F C
Seattle Riot 0.3911 0.7987 0.4850 0.2915 0.1616
Brute Squad 0.3082 0.8651 0.5898 0.3677 0.2360
Molly Brown 0.4170 0.8018 0.5305 0.3270 0.2001
Fury 0.4061 0.7836 0.4608 0.2621 0.1411
Scandal 0.5263 0.4568 0.2002 0.0839 0.0335
Traffic 0.4771 0.3181 0.1345 0.0541 0.0218
Ozone 0.3692 0.1730 0.0548 0.0163 0.0050
6ixers 0.5733 0.3917 0.1430 0.0477 0.0132
Nightlock 0.4513 0.2885 0.0899 0.0294 0.0108
Heist 0.5182 0.2613 0.1005 0.0340 0.0106
Pop 0.6370 0.4863 0.2018 0.0799 0.0245
Showdown 0.4607 0.2462 0.0763 0.0235 0.0072
Underground 0.5749 0.4240 0.1414 0.0463 0.0158
Rival 0.6856 0.5878 0.2771 0.1265 0.0456
Schwa 0.5877 0.5066 0.2305 0.0886 0.0327
Nemesis 0.6163 0.6105 0.2839 0.1215 0.0405

displayBracketWomen-1.png

Men

Pool

team pool_name 1 2 3 4
Revolver A 0.5446 0.2460 0.1471 0.0623
HIGH FIVE A 0.2140 0.2921 0.2686 0.2253
Doublewide A 0.1288 0.2317 0.2988 0.3407
Sub Zero A 0.1126 0.2302 0.2855 0.3717
Sockeye B 0.3975 0.2693 0.2049 0.1283
Chicago Machine B 0.2871 0.2725 0.2479 0.1925
Florida United B 0.1622 0.2307 0.2774 0.3297
PoNY B 0.1532 0.2275 0.2698 0.3495
Ring of Fire C 0.3584 0.2799 0.2147 0.1470
Ironside C 0.3119 0.2717 0.2335 0.1829
GOAT C 0.1719 0.2195 0.2811 0.3275
Patrol C 0.1578 0.2289 0.2707 0.3426
Truck Stop D 0.3675 0.2710 0.2049 0.1566
Johnny Bravo D 0.2422 0.2583 0.2666 0.2329
Dig D 0.2544 0.2509 0.2678 0.2269
SoCal Condors D 0.1359 0.2198 0.2607 0.3836

displayPoolsMen-1.png

Bracket

team PQ Q S F C
Revolver 0.3931 0.8056 0.5128 0.3393 0.2174
Sockeye 0.4742 0.7104 0.4313 0.2666 0.1611
Ring of Fire 0.4946 0.6343 0.3469 0.1747 0.0894
Truck Stop 0.4759 0.6148 0.3280 0.1585 0.0793
Johnny Bravo 0.5249 0.5107 0.2403 0.1098 0.0510
Ironside 0.5052 0.5643 0.2876 0.1340 0.0625
Chicago Machine 0.5204 0.5583 0.2777 0.1402 0.0627
HIGH FIVE 0.5607 0.5158 0.2585 0.1325 0.0603
Dig 0.5187 0.4888 0.2206 0.0927 0.0372
GOAT 0.5006 0.3842 0.1549 0.0589 0.0232
Florida United 0.5081 0.3956 0.1735 0.0720 0.0285
Doublewide 0.5305 0.3705 0.1526 0.0623 0.0237
Sub Zero 0.5157 0.3474 0.1472 0.0593 0.0237
PoNY 0.4973 0.3851 0.1731 0.0777 0.0337
Patrol 0.4996 0.3678 0.1532 0.0651 0.0248
SoCal Condors 0.4805 0.3464 0.1418 0.0564 0.0215

displayBracketMen-1.png